Dec 15th and 16th are when the Fed meets for the final time in 2008, when it will decide how low the Fed Funds rate should be.

No ordinary time:

1. The Fed Funds Rate sits at 1.00%. But the Effective Rate as of Friday, Dec 12th according to the Financial Times was 0.14%
2. Fed Reserves normally are $800-900 billion. Today there are $1.5 trillion in Fed Reserves, according to The St. Louis Federal Reserve.
3. Treasuries normally pay positive interest rates. According to the Financial Times, overnight rates for three month treasuries are paying 0.03%. Further, the latest auction showed people are willing to pay the US Government more for less in the future. (deflation).

So what should the Fed do?

• Conventional wisdom leading up to this meeting was that the Fed would cut interest rates by 50 basis points from the current 1.00%.
• I argued in a previous post that only a 50 basis point cut would do nothing.
• Now, the expectation has shifted (maybe thanks to my Note….just maybe). CME Fed Binary Options prices as of Friday, Dec 12th show the market is betting on a 75 basis point cut.

The three major reasons against a 50 basis point cut are as follows:

• For some time, the effective Fed Funds rate has been trading below 50 basis points, making a 50 bp cut moot.
• With demand for Treasuries now essentially inelastic, part of the Fed’s open market operations are simply ineffective.
• Since the Fed’s rate cuts in the fall, bank lending has not responded. I argued in Note 16 one way to view this. Here is another: A look at the St. Louis Fed research shows M2 has remained largely unchanged from October 20th to December 1st. We need a resounding effort to get capital out of Fed Reserves and into the private markets.

A 75 basis point cut will occur by Close of Business, Tuesday the 16th.

But a 75 basis point cut may not help all that much without a spur of domestic demand.

• St. Louis Fed research shows corporate Aaa bond yields have remained largely unchanged over the fall: While base rates have declined, spreads have widened.
• The Commercial Paper Market has dramatically shifted from private market consumption to the Fed. According to the St. Louis Fed, in October, the figure of borrowing from the Fed was $450 billion. Today, it still is over $250 billion.
• This week, according to Financial Times data,  The American Express -now- “Bank” jumped on the bandwagon of FDIC backed debt raising, floating $5.5 billion of debt at yields of 2-3%.

In short, the Fed’s and other government’s massive expansion of credit market intervention is now more powerful than Open Market Operations. While the need for a 75 basis point is important and required, other actions are now more powerful to spur economic recovery.

Turning to 2009:

The fact-pattern above gives pause to how big a stimulus package needs to be vs. how quickly it needs to be spent. I am for a massive Fiscal Stimulus of at least $600 billion. But every dollar borrowed by the US Government (especially today) is a dollar unable to be accessed by Private Companies for new projects and investments, even in ZIRP land.

As Paul Krugman said today on “This Week”, it is hard to spend $600 billion dollars, even for the Government. Domestic Demand stimulus will only be effective therefore in boosting the private economy if “size” is optimally aligned with “velocity” and “accuracy of spending”.

Still, look for a 75 basis point cut this week as the final message of 2008 in preparation of massive fiscal stimulus in early 2009.

As a follow up to Note 15, this week banks in the US issued $23.8 Billion more in FDIC (taxpayer backed) debt. This is on top of the roughly $17 billion issued last week. The total amounts exceed the reserves the FDIC has in the bank. Looking at where other debt is trading for major banks, the FDIC (the taxpayer) is subsidizing each bank (B of A, GS, Morgan Stanley, JP Morgan, etc.) by approximately 300 basis points.

On a randomly selected May 16th, 2007, the Federal Funds rate was 5.25%. The effective rate (the rate bankers actually trade and negotiate at) was 5.29%. The actions taken by the Fed ensured its “target base rate” was the actual base rate for charged money. In short, this is our monetary system we take for granted, daily.

Before the credit crisis, how did the Fed ensure the spread between the target and effective rate stay so close to zero (if you know this, please skip down)?

• Banks are required to hold a certain amount of capital at the Federal Reserve. Prior to the crisis, a banking business model was to lend to outside parties. When lending exceeded required capital reserved at the Fed, banks had to borrow to repatriate to the Fed.
• The first choice of funds to borrow is capital held by other banks at the Federal Reserve.
• Should other banks charge too much for these funds, banks seeking capital could simply short treasuries.
• The Fed would mimicked this action,  buying and selling treasuries to ensure the market price for treasuries kept banks honest in pricing overnight lending.
• Sure enough, on May 16th, 2007, overnight LIBOR was 5.30%, one basis point from the effective rate and five basis points from the target rate.

Today, the story is quite different. The Federal Reserve’s target Federal Funds rate is 1.00%. The effective rate, (from the Financial Times), is 0.49%.

Two implications:

• Almost everyone surveyed, interviewed, and opining (including me) expects the Federal Reserve to slash the target rate from 1.00% to 0.50% in December. That decision is now moot.
• When the effective rate is nearly half the target rate and overnight LIBOR is 0.70%, in between the two rates, and yields on treasuries expiring on November 30th are 2.67%, there is a problem of illiquid markets, not responding correctly to simple centralized decisions attempting to steer the economy. To quote Senator Trent Lott, we are now “herding cats“.

How and why?

Reviewing the minutes from the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting and events of the “credit crisis” I find several issues:

• Randomly sampling daily market rates, the spread between target and effective rates was not large enough to be significant until after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, on September 15th, 2008.
• By September 22nd, 2008, while the target rate was still 2.00%, the effective rate was 1.79%. By the end of that week, the effective rate was 1.21%. In short, capital required to be in the Fed was not going anywhere: thus the start of banks truly refusing to lend.
• So, the Fed on October 6th, 2008 started paying interest on held capital, attempting to establish a floor on effective rates. Most important, the Fed started to pay interest on excess cash held above any requirements.
• But by October 10th, 2008, the policy wasn’t working. While the Fed slashed rates from 2.00% to 1.50%, the effective rate was 0.90%.
• By October 21st, the effective rate hovered below the floor rate established by the Fed on October 6th, 0.73%.
• So, the Fed again in two different announcements, the latest on November 5th, raised the interest rates paid on excess balances. As of today, any excess capital receives the target rate.

We’re still in the same position and I highlight what is explained beautifully in a recent Financial Times article:

• Most of today’s spread is explained because our Government Sponsored Entities, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, hold reserves at the Fed. Yet they can not receive interest payments, and thus must lend their capital at the effective rate.
• As banks are queasy regarding their own reserve requirements, they do not want to borrow entity funds for opportunities.  This capital simply sits at the Federal Reserve, depressing the target rate.

The Bottom Line:

• BANKS ARE NOT LENDING. If Banks were lending, there would be no need to pay interest on excess reserves.  That capital would be privately lent, to businesses large and small, old and new.

The Fed now has de-facto set a larger reserve requirement for banks, by paying interest on excess reserves. This is very dangerous.  That excess cash that should be in the market, growing our economy. (As I heard in business school again and again “putting capital to work”).

While overnight LIBOR has trended up since the Fed’s latest announcement (from 0.33% to 0.70% and most likely will continue up to 1.00%), the larger problem is this: For growth opportunities of the US Economy, the same target rate on a larger reserve pool of capital is equivalent to a higher rate on the official “reserve requirements”.

Therefore, when the Fed does cut rates to 50 basis points, what effect will it have?

On November 3rd, I wrote that the market was already stating deflation in the US was on its way. TIP yields were priced way above treasury yields, even correcting for recent large capital flight into the US.

Today, the market reacted to the  price declines in the UK and the US for the month of October:

• For the US, prices declined by 1% for the month of October
• For the UK, October hosted the steepest drop in prices since 1997

Lesson one: even in illiquid times, its hard to bet against the market.

Here are a few reasons why it is not surprising to see price declines of this magnitude in either country.

• I would argue most importantly, both countries have witnessed massive home value declines. Essentially, every family in each country was forced to estimate their now reduced net worth (with great uncertainty) and reign in spending on everything from cars to consumer durables.

• Oil, which both countries import, has declined almost $100 a barrel in the last few months. The fact that oil has declined has two profound effects:

1. While the FED dismissed energy as part of core inflation, increases in energy increase the cost of goods produced and sold (including food), increasing prices throughout the economy. In turn, a decline in energy should result in a decline in all prices.
2. Increases in import prices put stress on the balance of accounts, forcing currency devaluation, which in turn increase prices in the short term. Therefore, a decline in imports (as oil has declined) should improve the current account balance, improve currency (as the dollar has strengthened) and reduce prices.

However, now the UK and the US are in two different positions.

• The UK has a base rate of 3%

• The US has a base rate of 1%

The UK therefore has greater room to maneuver. The US has all but exhausted its monetary toolkit to fight deflation and grow our economy. All but certain, the Fed will slash rates by 50 basis points this December, and perhaps provide guidance it will not increase rates anytime soon.  When Obama assumes office, the new administration can only (and must) invoke a massive fiscal stimulus to revive the economy, hopefully in the form of infrastructure spending and tax cuts.  Across the pond, The UK still has the ability to do both to fight deflation and revive its economy. Further, a decline in rates for the UK should further reduce the Pound, allowing the UK to help export its way out of this malaise. The US does not have this luxury.

While many in the US are against government spending, I hope they realize that as of now, we do not have a choice.

Is the liquidity crunch over?

Here is my thinking:

Let’s review treasury rates (aka, the “riskless” rates) for the US and UK over the next six months. According to the Financial Times data on November 14^th, 2008:

• US treasuries set to expire in six months yield 87 basis points (Deflation).
• UK treasuries set to expire in six months yield 199 basis points (who knows)
• One British Pound today is worth 1.4827 US Dollars
• One British Pound’s worth in six months as of today’s spot forward is 1.4807 US Dollars

The rates for sovereign taxpayer debt and the interlinking value in currency should display the differences in risk of each country.

• $100 invested in US treasuries vs. $100 invested in UK treasuries and converted at the corresponding spot and forward rates should yield the same rate of return.
• Converting $100 to pound equivalents, investing in UK treasuries, and returning those pounds to US Dollars six months from now returns a dollar more (.98 US cents) in value.

In normal times, no way. Someone in any trading house would be looking for the “blips” to quote Michael Lewis from Liar’s Poker. Here are a two observations why this opportunity exists today:

• As discussed in previous posts, we’ve witnessed massive flight to quality recently, as capital has left emerging markets and safe harbored itself in US Treasuries
• The REPO market continues to be stressful. Again, as discussed in previous posts, the lack of shorting treasury opportunities has caused massive spreads differences in otherwise equally risky cash flows.

What is interesting though is that the link between currency and risk still exists for the most part. For the UK though, that means its current treasury yields are tied far more to the US and the Dollar than they are to their own interest rate policy (currently at 3.00%). While the Bank of England has been aggressive in rate reductions, its own government bonds in no way reflect this.

In yesterday’s Financial Times, an article appeared on Ireland’s increasing yield to would be investors of its sovereign debt. While France and Germany’s two year bonds trade at 2.83% and 2.52% respectively, Spain and Italy’s two year bonds trade 3.13% and 3.38% respectively, Ireland had to offer 25 basis points more than average European Yields.

In today’s Financial Times, further evidence of sovereign debt problems as emerging markets are having a harder time raising funds. Most countries signaled out are running high current account deficits. Translation, the sovereign currencies are poised for a revaluation, aka decline.

With current account deficits, there are no foreign reserves (dollars or Euros) to give investors comfort the debt is guaranteed. Many remember the Asian Financial Crisis, where countries debt was loaned in dollars, ran current account deficits, and were forced into dramatic currency revaluations.

Let’s hope the Federal Reserve’s Swaps work.

But the real question is: Given even Euro denominated Ireland’s problems, what would Dani Rodrik do?

Since the bailout was enacted, three-month LIBOR declined from highs of 4.75% to 3.52%. Further, three-month LIBOR dropped 90 basis points in this last week.

Room to drop?

The market votes yes. Three-month Eurodollar contracts closing in December (the three-month LIBOR futures rate) is pricing at 2.63%. By June, three-month LIBOR is expected to decline to 2.48%.

Context on the market prediction is critical. We must understand how much risk is priced into spreads.

TED Spreads, the base spread of risk between private capital and riskless funds, remain large.

• Today, three month treasuries yield .93%.
• Investing in treasuries today for returns in March 31st, 2009 yields 1.2125%.
• The implied treasury yield matching the Dec EuroDollar Contract is therefore .72%.
• Further, for three month March LIBOR, projected at 2.50%, equivalent three month Treasuries yield .22%.

So, good news and bad news. LIBOR is declining, but the TED spread remains wide.

As a side note, it is now obvious that Treasury Yields have priced a massive rate cut over the coming months.